The Charlotte Independence confirmed their spot in the 2024 USL League One Playoffs, presented by Terminix earlier this month to confirm its fifth consecutive postseason trip and seventh across its 10 seasons of existence.

A season ago, the Jacks were downed on penalties by Dogwood Derby foe, North Carolina FC, in the 2023 USL League One Final, notably defeating League One heavyweights Greenville and Omaha on the road to reach that stage. While they currently sit sixth in the standings, they cannot be ruled out as a contender to lift claim their first League One title come the end of the season. Here are three reasons why they'll be the last team standing, and one reason why they won't.

1. Shot conversion

The Independence are a team with an intriguing attacking profile, given that they do not create a large number of shots yet maintain an elite level of shot conversion. The Jacks are tied for the third-most goals with 34, but have taken the second-fewest amount of total shots in the league, which puts them at a rate of just 6.41 shots per goal. For comparison, league-leading goalscorers Omaha average 6.61 shots per goal.

Charlotte are overperforming their expected goals by approximately 8.87, which demonstrates that the Jacks make the most out of the limited opportunities they create. This idea is supplemented by their shooting statistics, as they lead the league in shot accuracy, shot conversion and big-chance conversion. Regardless of how the momentum in a match may be going, it only takes one spark for the Independence to make their opposition pay.

2. Counter Attacking

Continuing on the discussion of attacking, Charlotte have a team structure built on playing on the counter. Alongside their relatively low shot-creating statistics, the Independence rank second to last in total possession maintained. Despite their sparse time on the ball, their previously noted attacking statistics are some of the best in the league. This comes from patiently picking and choosing the right moments to go forward.

Charlotte's possession-winning rates in the midfield and attacking thirds sit in the middle-to-low range, but the decade-old side are first in League One in possession won in their own defensive third. They are able to sit deeper when their opponents have the ball, win it back without being hasty and exposing themselves too much, and then look to go forward. This particular style of attacking play is why they are on the lower end for their total shots created, but the amount of goals they score shows that they are great at being patient before charging upfield.

3. Discipline

It is common for teams with lower rates of possession to falter in the discipline category due to built-up frustration from having to do plenty of dirty work to get the ball, yet Charlotte have shown that they can keep their heads in the face of adversity. They have accrued the third-fewest red cards, yellow cards and fouls conceded. The Jacks have been shown just one red card all season.

If they want to go the distance, they'll have to face teams that will put a heavy emphasis on out-possessing them and pinning their defense against the wall, meaning that maintaining composure will once again be the name of the game. Charlotte have shown that they can bend and not break, and if they can keep this mentality for just a few more games, a return to the USL League One Final is not out of the question.

Why Charlotte Won’t Win it All

While Charlotte have the individual defensive components to compete for a League One crown once again, there have been periods where they have been prone to allowing a leaky goal. They have the lowest goal differential for teams maintaining a positive differential this season with five, despite the haul of goals they have scored. It is also worth mentioning that they also have the third most penalty goals conceded with four despite their low amount of fouls.

This could be a focal point for teams who create goalscoring chances in large quantities. A common saying in that 'It only takes one chance to score,' which the Jacks would likely agree with, but when teams create goalscoring opportunities for fun, it is entirely possible a goal or two could slip past the Jacks regardless of how they have been playing so far. This issue could be attributed to how they play in either the front or the back, or to plain bad luck. Regardless, they will have to focus up if they want to advance to the Final in back-to-back years.